Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Drury singled to right, Ward scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 8Neto homered to left (384 feet).4–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 6Suárez hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored, Hernández to second, Kelenic to third.4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 5Ford homered to right center (412 feet).3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Trout hit sacrifice fly to right, Neto scored, Ohtani to second, Ward to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 4Hernández homered to left (403 feet), France scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 3Renfroe doubled to left, Thaiss scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Thaiss doubled to right, Ohtani scored and Trout scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Neto homered to left center (421 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -116
- SEA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +13 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +48 Elo | LAA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 19–149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–3 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.