Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suárez singled to left, Hernández scored, Kelenic to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Crawford singled to center, Pollock scored, Murphy to second.5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Murphy singled to right, Suárez scored, Pollock to second.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Ohtani homered to right (400 feet), Neto scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Hernández singled to left, France scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Rodríguez homered to center (421 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 60%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −48 | −2 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 2.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +72 Elo | LAA 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 19–137th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.