Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hernández singled to right, France scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Rodríguez homered to left center (436 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Hernández homered to center (420 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Tatis Jr. grounded out to first, Odor scored, Nola to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3France singled to left, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +28 Elo | SD 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 12–1727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.