Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Padres- Juan SotoBatting5-5, 4 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8France grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Wong scored, Rodríguez out at second, Caballero to third.3–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 8Rodríguez reached on infield single to second, Ford scored, Caballero to second, Wong to third.2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Caballero hit by pitch, Moore scored, Wong to second, Ford to third.1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Soto doubled to center, Grisham scored.0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–9
- 7Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Kim scored, Grisham to third.0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Soto singled to right, Carpenter scored and Rivas scored, Tatis Jr. to third.0–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Rivas singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Carpenter to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Soto singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Sánchez homered to left center (414 feet), Soto scored and Machado scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Carpenter singled to right, Sánchez scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Fair odds
- SD -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +18 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +30 Elo | SD 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 12–1827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.