Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ford homered to right (388 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 33–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 6Moniak homered to center (394 feet), Rendon scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5France singled to center, Caballero scored, Rodríguez to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Rengifo singled to center, Rendon scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (440 feet), Ward scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–0
- 1Kelenic homered to right center (397 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Fair odds
- LAA -113
- SEA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +20 Elo | LAA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 18–139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.