Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Franco homered to left (371 feet), Walls scored and Díaz scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 3Seager singled to center, Semien scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Semien doubled to center, Taveras scored on error, Semien safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Siri.2–4
- 3Semien doubled to center, Taveras scored on error, Semien safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Siri.2–4
- 3Semien doubled to center, Taveras scored on error, Semien safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Siri.2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Grossman homered to left center (385 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Ramírez singled to center, Walls scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Walls doubled to left, Margot scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Paredes grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Franco scored, Arozarena out at second, Ramírez to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Arozarena singled to right, Díaz scored, Ramírez to second, Franco to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- TEX +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +24 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +53 Elo | TB 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | +2.02nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 30–71st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.