Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Jung scored, Garver safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto.9–6
- 12Jung scored on error, Garver safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto.9–6
- 12Jung scored on error, Garver safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Neto.9–6
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–6
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 12Wallach homered to right center (380 feet), Trout scored.9–5
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 12Ohtani homered to left (388 feet), Ward scored.7–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Ohtani homered to center (459 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Trout scored on Dunning wild pitch, Thaiss to second on wild pitch by Dunning.4–5
- 5Trout scored on Dunning wild pitch, Thaiss to second on wild pitch by Dunning.4–5
- 5Rendon flied out to right, Ward scored on throwing error by right fielder García, Trout safe at second.3–5
- 5Rendon flied out to right, Ward scored on throwing error by right fielder García, Trout safe at second on error.3–5
- 5Rendon flied out to right, Ward scored on throwing error by right fielder García, Trout safe at second on error.3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to left, Neto scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Garver doubled to left, Jung scored, Heim to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Jung singled to center, Seager scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Trout singled to left, Ward scored, Ohtani to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- LAA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.9 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +60 Elo | TEX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 6.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.31st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 21–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.