Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jaime BarriaPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Drury singled to left, Ohtani scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 9Neto homered to center (396 feet), Wallach scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Renfroe homered to right (365 feet), Rendon scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Rendon grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ohtani scored on throwing error by shortstop Seager, Drury out at second.2–3
- 6Rendon grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ohtani scored on throwing error by shortstop Seager, Drury out at second.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Seager homered to center (435 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Lowe homered to left center (397 feet), Seager scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Wallach scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Fair odds
- TEX -116
- LAA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.2 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −23 | LAA: Jaime Barria: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 21–102nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–2 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.