Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting1-3
- Brady SingerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Thaiss walked, Velazquez scored, Drury to second, Ohtani to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 43–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Drury doubled to left, Trout scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Drury singled to center, Ohtani scored, Trout to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.9 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +43 Elo | LAA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 9–2629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–1 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.