Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 4 RBI
- Mike MayersPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9S. Taylor singled to center, Garcia scored.9–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–9
- 9Garcia singled to left, Blanco scored.9–9
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 39–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 9Trout singled to left, Velazquez scored, Ohtani to second.9–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–8
- 8Witt Jr. singled to left, S. Taylor scored and Waters scored, Pratto to second.8–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 8Pratto singled to right, Lopez scored, Waters to second, S. Taylor to third.8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Witt Jr. doubled to left, S. Taylor scored and Waters scored, Pratto to third.8–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Waters doubled to right, Lopez scored, S. Taylor to third.8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Ohtani homered to center (437 feet).8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Stefanic doubled to left, Ward scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Drury homered to left (396 feet), Trout scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +14 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Mike Mayers: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +50 Elo | LAA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 9–2729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 3–1 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.