Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-4
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walsh homered to right (380 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Trout homered to left center (408 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (422 feet), Ward scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4S. Taylor singled to center, Garcia scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Drury singled to center, Trout scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Fermin singled to left, Garcia scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -108
- KC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.9 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +35 Elo | LAA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 10–2729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.