Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Busch doubled to left, Outman scored, Rojas thrown out at home.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Tucker homered to right (356 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Dubón homered to left (386 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Outman scored, Busch to second, Rojas to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Betts homered to left center (420 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -112
- HOU +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −14 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +18 Elo | LAD 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.64th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 22–144th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.