St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Candelario grounded out to first, García scored.0–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Candelario doubled to center, García scored, Candelario out stretching at third.0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Abrams homered to left center (382 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Fair odds
- WSH -105
- STL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +14 Elo | STL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 12–2628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.