Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting3-5
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Soler singled to center, Amaya scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Hampson scored, Amaya to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Thomas homered to left (427 feet), Robles scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Fortes hit sacrifice fly to right, Soler scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Amaya grounded into fielder's choice to third, Fortes scored, Hampson out at second, Davis to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- WSH +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +9 Elo | MIA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 12–2328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 5–0 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.