Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4
- Luis CastilloPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, France scored, Hernández to third.4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 8Davis hit sacrifice fly to center, Segura scored, Fortes to third.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 8Fortes doubled to right, Sánchez scored, Segura to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Soler homered to center (409 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Davis scored on Castillo wild pitch, De La Cruz to second on wild pitch by Castillo.1–0
- 3Davis scored on Castillo wild pitch, De La Cruz to second on wild pitch by Castillo.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 19–1513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.