Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murphy homered to center (408 feet).1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Suárez homered to right center (420 feet).1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Fortes homered to left (409 feet).1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 2France homered to left center (420 feet), Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Rodríguez singled to right, Murphy scored, Crawford to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Hernández scored, Suárez safe at first on fielding error by left fielder De La Cruz.0–2
- 1Hernández scored on error, Suárez safe at first on fielding error by left fielder De La Cruz.0–2
- 1Hernández scored on error, Suárez safe at first on fielding error by left fielder De La Cruz.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Hernández doubled to left, Crawford scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Fair odds
- SEA -105
- MIA +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −20 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +8 Elo | MIA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 17–1515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.