Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Mike FordBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ford homered to right center (394 feet).3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Cooper homered to right (390 feet), Soler scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Caballero tripled to left, Suárez scored, Raleigh scored and Ford scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 6Soler singled to center, Hampson scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Ford homered to right center (399 feet), Kelenic scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Raleigh homered to right (409 feet), Kelenic scored and Suárez scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- MIA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 18–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.