Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz singled to right, Arraez scored and Hampson scored, Soler to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Candelario grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Thomas scored, García out at second.3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7Fortes scored on Kuhl wild pitch, Soler to second on wild pitch by Kuhl, Arraez to third on wild pitch by Kuhl.3–1
- 7Fortes scored on Kuhl wild pitch, Soler to second on wild pitch by Kuhl, Arraez to third on wild pitch by Kuhl.3–1
- 7Soler walked, Davis scored, Arraez to second, Fortes to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 42–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Meneses singled to right, Candelario scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Davis hit sacrifice fly to right, Sánchez scored, Wendle to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -101
- WSH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −27 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 1.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +29 Elo | MIA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 12–2228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.