Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting5-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cooper reached on infield single to shortstop, Gurriel scored, Wendle to second.6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 4Thomas doubled to left, Abrams scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Abrams doubled to center, Smith scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Arraez singled to left, Stallings scored, Davis to second.5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Meneses singled to right, Candelario scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Arraez homered to right (383 feet), Davis scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Meneses hit sacrifice fly to right, García scored, Candelario to third.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Thomas homered to center (411 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Sánchez singled to left, Arraez scored and Soler scored, Sánchez to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- MIA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +1 Elo | MIA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 12–2128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.