St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 4 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7García grounded out to first, Abrams scored, Thomas to third.8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Contreras singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Arenado to third.8–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 7Arenado singled to right, Edman scored, Nootbaar to third.7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 5Goldschmidt homered to left (406 feet).6–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 5Donovan homered to right center (402 feet), DeJong scored and Edman scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Goldschmidt singled to center, Edman scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Edman tripled to center, DeJong scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2García singled to left, Abrams scored and Thomas scored, García out stretching at second.0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Dickerson singled to right, Candelario scored and Meneses scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1García hit sacrifice fly to right, Thomas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +11 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +26 Elo | WSH 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 12–2428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.