St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Dylan CarlsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adams tripled to right, Garrett scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9DeJong homered to center (433 feet), Contreras scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Robles scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Goldschmidt grounded out to second, Knizner scored, Edman to second, Donovan to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Contreras singled to right, Goldschmidt scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Carlson homered to left center (404 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Contreras doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Arenado hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Garrett doubled to left, García scored.2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +19 Elo | WSH 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 12–2528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.