Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Bregman singled to left, Dubón scored.6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 10Betts hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Julks singled to right, Peña scored on error, Julks safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Heyward.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Smith homered to center (416 feet), Freeman scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Freeman doubled to right, Betts scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4J. Abreu homered to center (412 feet), Tucker scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Peña homered to left center (418 feet), McCormick scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Betts homered to center (392 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +30 Elo | LAD 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.64th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 24–143rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.