Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson homered to right, Hoerner scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Goldschmidt singled to right, Edman scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to third, Tauchman scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 4Tauchman hit a ground rule double, Madrigal scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3Gomes singled to center, Bellinger scored, Morel thrown out at third.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Morel singled to center, Swanson scored, Bellinger to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Happ homered to right.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Madrigal singled to center, Morel scored, Gomes to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.