Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-2
- Osvaldo BidoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki doubled to left, Tauchman scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 8Hoerner grounded out to second, Madrigal scored, Tauchman to second.7–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 8Tauchman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gomes scored on error, Madrigal safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Bae, Madrigal safe at third on error.6–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 15–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Swanson reached on infield single to third, Tauchman scored, Happ to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Tauchman singled to left, Madrigal scored, Tauchman to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Hoerner singled to center, Mastrobuoni scored, Tauchman to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Tauchman singled to center, Gomes scored and Morel scored, Mastrobuoni to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −19 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +15 Elo | CHC 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.324th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 18–1618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 3–0 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.