Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Joey WiemerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hayes reached on infield single to second, Santana scored and Suwinski scored, Hayes to second, Palacios thrown out at third.4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Wiemer homered to right center (390 feet).2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Marcano hit sacrifice fly to center, Bae scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Contreras hit a ground rule double, Perkins scored, Monasterio to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Santana homered to right (386 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Perkins singled to center, Adames scored and Urías scored, Anderson to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Anderson walked, Yelich scored, Urías to second, Adames to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +35 Elo | MIL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.