Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tucupita MarcanoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Morel hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Morel scored, Hoerner safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Marcano, Tauchman to second, Barnhart to third.2–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Madrigal sacrificed to pitcher, Bellinger scored, Morel to third.2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–4
- 5Morel reached on infield single to third, Swanson scored, Bellinger to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Bellinger doubled to right, Happ scored, Swanson to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Happ doubled to left, Hoerner scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +19 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.