Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-2, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Morel homered to left (404 feet), Hoerner scored and Suzuki scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 7Gomes singled to right, Happ scored and Suzuki scored, Swanson to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Swanson reached on infield single to pitcher, Hoerner scored, Happ to second, Suzuki to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Happ hit by pitch, Barnhart scored, Suzuki to second, Hoerner to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Mervis singled to right, Happ scored, Swanson to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Suwinski homered to right (425 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Bae singled to left, Palacios scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 1Happ homered to right (393 feet), Tauchman scored and Hoerner scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Suwinski homered to center (418 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Fair odds
- CHC -105
- PIT +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −16 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +1 Elo | CHC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 15–1623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.