Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mancini singled to center, Suzuki scored, Swanson to second.6–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 8Suzuki doubled to center, Hoerner scored and Tauchman scored.6–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 7Santana hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Swanson singled to left, Suzuki scored, Happ to third.5–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 35–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Happ singled to left, Madrigal scored and Tauchman scored, Suzuki to second.5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Tauchman singled to center, Gomes scored and Morel scored, Madrigal to second.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Madrigal walked, Swanson scored, Gomes to second, Morel to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball 45–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Hedges homered to left (375 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Santana singled to first, Reynolds scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Swanson singled to left, Tauchman scored, Suzuki to second.3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Fair odds
- CHC -108
- PIT +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | PIT: Osvaldo Bido (no track record yet) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.