Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting2-3
- Adrian HouserPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bride hit sacrifice fly to center, Brown scored, Laureano to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Urías doubled to right, Perkins scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Perkins doubled to left, Wiemer scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Ruiz singled to left, Langeliers scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Bride singled to left, Laureano scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Laureano tripled to right, Ruiz scored and Noda scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -136
- OAK +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 4.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +16 | OAK: Sam Moll (no track record yet) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +93 Elo | MIL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.7 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–26 | Road vs home | 18–139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.