Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Toro singled to right, Adames scored and Yelich scored, Caratini to third.8–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 9Caratini walked, Contreras scored, Yelich to second, Adames to third.8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 48–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 9Noda singled to left, Ruiz scored, Noda thrown out at second.8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 9Ruiz doubled to left, Kemp scored and Pérez scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Smith homered to left (383 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Perkins singled to right, Adames scored on error, Urías to second, Urías safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Laureano.4–3
- 6Perkins singled to right, Adames scored on error, Urías to second, Urías safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Laureano.4–3
- 6Perkins singled to right, Adames scored on error, Urías to second, Urías safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Laureano.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Rooker homered to left (413 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Brown homered to right (359 feet), Noda scored and Laureano scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 11 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Fair odds
- MIL -128
- OAK +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −17 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–26 | Road vs home | 18–1515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–0 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.