Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Aledmys DiazBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Díaz singled to center, Kemp scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Contreras homered to center (440 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Bleday grounded into fielder's choice to second, Peterson scored, Díaz out at second.1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- OAK +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +78 Elo | MIL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–26 | Road vs home | 18–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.