Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Correa homered to left (408 feet), Solano scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 9Solano singled to center, Castro scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Taylor homered to center (425 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7Farmer homered to left center (387 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Yelich homered to left center (401 feet), Caratini scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Correa grounded into fielder's choice to third, Julien scored, Solano out at second.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Solano singled to right, Taylor scored, Julien to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Tellez singled to center, Yelich scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Yelich doubled to right, Caratini scored and Urías scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- MIL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +22 Elo | MIN 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 18–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.