Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Michael A. TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Jeffers scored on error, Lewis safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Merrifield.3–2
- 10Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Jeffers scored on error, Lewis safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Merrifield.3–2
- 10Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Jeffers scored on error, Lewis safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Merrifield.3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Springer doubled to center, Espinal scored, Springer to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Bichette singled to right, Espinal scored, Heineman to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Taylor homered to left center (403 feet), Lewis scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -116
- MIN +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 18–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.