Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Biggio homered to center (423 feet), Kirk scored and Kiermaier scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Chapman homered to left center (368 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Biggio scored on error, Guerrero Jr. safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Correa, Springer out at second.6–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Biggio scored on error, Guerrero Jr. safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Correa, Springer out at second.6–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Biggio scored on error, Guerrero Jr. safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Correa, Springer out at second.6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Lewis singled to center, Correa scored, Larnach to second.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Solano homered to center (401 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1Chapman hit sacrifice fly to right, Springer scored.4–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Lewis reached on infield single to shortstop, Correa scored, Larnach to second.4–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Larnach singled to right, Kirilloff scored and Solano scored, Correa to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Kirilloff doubled to right, Julien scored, Solano to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +33 Elo | TOR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 18–138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.