Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor RichardsPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Espinal singled to right, Merrifield scored, Varsho to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 9Kirilloff doubled to left, Solano scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 8Kepler homered to right center (402 feet), Larnach scored and Castro scored.8–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Correa homered to left center (376 feet), Taylor scored, Julien scored and Solano scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Larnach homered to center (404 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Lukes hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Belt scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Merrifield singled to right, Chapman scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -113
- MIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −11 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Trevor Richards (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 18–126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.