Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Gallo singled to right, Larnach scored, Gallo out stretching at second.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Larnach doubled to center, Correa scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Correa tripled to center, Julien scored and Solano scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Urías homered to left (392 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Anderson homered to center (411 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +12 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +52 Elo | MIN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 19–1410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.