Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Tauchman hit sacrifice fly to left, Gomes scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Rutschman homered to center (406 feet), Hays scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Hoerner doubled to center, Tauchman scored and Mastrobuoni scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -101
- BAL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +6 Elo | BAL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 19–1616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.