Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Aaron HicksBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hicks singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Hays to second.3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Bichette doubled to center, Springer scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Merrifield hit a ground rule double, Kiermaier scored.2–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Springer homered to left center (437 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- TOR +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +6 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 21–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–4 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.