Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirk reached on infield single to pitcher, Biggio scored, Varsho to second, Espinal to third.6–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 35–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–11
- 9Espinal grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clement scored, Chapman out at second, Biggio to third.5–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Kirk singled to right, Espinal scored, Varsho to third.4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–11
- 8Biggio homered to right (390 feet).3–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 6Frazier singled to center, Hays scored.2–11
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 5Santander singled to center, Urías scored, Henderson to second.2–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 4Hicks homered to right (368 feet).2–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 4Kirk singled to right, Varsho scored.2–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +12 Elo | BAL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 20–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–3 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.