Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays homered to left center (439 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Santander singled to right, Hays scored, Rutschman to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Rutschman homered to left (394 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Jansen homered to left center (427 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Jansen homered to left (372 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Henderson singled to left, Santander scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- TOR +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +34 Elo | BAL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 21–135th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.