Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays singled to right, Rutschman scored, O'Hearn to third.3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Hoerner reached on infield single to second, Mancini scored, Happ to third.2–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–10
- 6Suzuki singled to left, Morel scored.2–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 6Morel doubled to left, Swanson scored and Hoerner scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Hoerner singled to right, Happ scored, Amaya to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Happ singled to right, Tauchman scored and Mancini scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Mateo doubled to left, Urías scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Hays singled to left, O'Hearn scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Morel homered to left center (423 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Swanson homered to left center (421 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Amaya homered to left (390 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- BAL +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +6 Elo | BAL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 18–1616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.