Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rutschman doubled to center, Hays scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Mateo singled to left, Frazier scored, Mateo thrown out at second, McKenna to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Frazier singled to center, Hicks scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Hearn scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Morel homered to center (417 feet), Bellinger scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Urías singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Hicks to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Santander homered to center (404 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Tauchman homered to left (365 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -101
- BAL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −14 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +8 Elo | BAL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 20–1612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 0–2 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.