Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías singled to left, Contreras scored and Miller scored, Urías thrown out at second.2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Tapia hit sacrifice fly to center, Adames scored, Miller to second, Contreras to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Contreras singled to right, Monasterio scored, Adames to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Winker singled to left, Yelich scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Reynolds homered to right (415 feet), Bae scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -113
- PIT +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −21 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +24 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 20–1612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.