Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Madrigal singled to right, Amaya scored and Happ scored, Tauchman to third.8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Marcano safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Mancini, Davis and Joe scored, Mitchell safe at third.6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Hoerner homered to right (366 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Happ doubled to left, Mancini scored and Morel scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Hoerner tripled to right, Amaya scored and Tauchman scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Palacios doubled to right, Joe scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -108
- CHC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 18–1821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 5–0 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.