Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4
- Johan OviedoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Tauchman homered to right (396 feet).3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Happ scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Barnhart homered to center (413 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -108
- CHC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +1 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +17 Elo | CHC 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 18–1719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 4–0 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.