Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Trey ManciniBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting4-4
- Matthew LiberatorePitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Madrigal scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 5Gorman singled to left, Contreras scored, Gorman out stretching at second.4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 4Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to left, Donovan scored, Goldschmidt to second.4–6
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 34–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 4Goldschmidt singled to right, Edman scored, Donovan to third.4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 3Walker singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Gorman to third.4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Donovan singled to right, Gorman scored and Walker scored, Edman to second.4–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Contreras scored, Edman safe at first on error by first baseman Mancini, Walker to second, Gorman to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Amaya doubled to third, Mancini scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Mancini doubled to center, Happ scored and Swanson scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Swanson singled to right, Hoerner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −3 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +47 Elo | CHC 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.