Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Martin MaldonadoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Paul DeJongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Arenado scored on Valdez wild pitch, Walker to second on wild pitch by Valdez.2–4
- 5Arenado scored on Valdez wild pitch, Walker to second on wild pitch by Valdez.2–4
- 5Arenado doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored on error, Arenado safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Dubón.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4DeJong hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored, Carlson to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3DeJong homered to left (405 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Maldonado homered to left center (438 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tucker grounded into fielder's choice to first, Dubón scored, Bregman out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- HOU +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −2 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +22 Elo | HOU 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 13–2127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.