New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bauers homered to right center (446 feet), Cabrera scored.4–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 9LeMahieu grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Volpe scored, Higashioka out at second, Cabrera to third.2–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 7Cabrera singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Volpe to third.1–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–11
- 5Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to center, Knizner scored.0–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 5Knizner doubled to left, Edman scored and DeJong scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Edman singled to left, Burleson scored, DeJong to second.0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Gorman homered to right (415 feet), Nootbaar scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3DeJong singled to left, Arenado scored, Burleson to second.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Burleson singled to left, Gorman scored, Arenado to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Goldschmidt homered to right center (386 feet), Edman scored and Knizner scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- STL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +22 Elo | NYY 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 14–2327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.