New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rooker singled to center, Bleday scored, Bride to second.10–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 210–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 110–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 6Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Stanton scored, Bader to third.10–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 6Bader singled to center, Rizzo scored, Stanton to third.9–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 6Stanton doubled to right, LeMahieu scored and Torres scored, Rizzo to third.8–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Torres singled to left, Trevino scored and Volpe scored, LeMahieu to third.6–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Donaldson homered to left center (472 feet), Bader scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice fly to left, Bader scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pérez hit sacrifice fly to center, Bleday scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- OAK +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +64 Elo | NYY 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 10–3030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 4–1 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.