Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tony KempBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Biggio homered to right (370 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Chapman scored.1–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–12
- 8Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Springer scored, Bichette out at second.1–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 8Bichette singled to left, Jansen scored, Springer to third.1–8
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 21–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 7Espinal hit a ground rule double, Bichette scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Springer hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiermaier scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Kemp homered to right (369 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Chapman scored on Medina wild pitch, Espinal to second, Biggio to third.0–4
- 3Chapman scored on Medina wild pitch, Espinal to second on wild pitch by Medina, Biggio to third on wild pitch by Medina.0–4
- 2Springer grounded into double play, third to second to first, Espinal scored, Heineman out at second, Kiermaier to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Merrifield scored on fielding error by center fielder Ruiz, Guerrero Jr. to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Springer homered to left center (392 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +6 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +115 Elo | TOR 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3011–30 | Road vs home | 20–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.